Graphic of Comparison of Sea-Level Rise Scenarios

Comparison of Sea-Level Rise Scenarios

The lowest blue curve is the extrapolated historical trend curve, which is an extrapolation of the data shown in the inset box. This curve is primarily controlled by regional sea level change projection and land uplift or subsidence.

The red intermediate curve is the updated 1987 National Research Council (NRC) curve 1.

The blue and green markers that bound this line indicate the 2007 IPCC SRES low and high estimates (SRES = special report on emissions scenarios, a subset of 6 of the IPCC projections).

The purple line provides the updated NRC curve 3. The dotted lines on the graph show locally-generated estimates from Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Cayan).

The black dots denote Coastal Conservancy estimates. These would represent stakeholder projections.

The blue shaded box indicates the Corps’ typical planning horizon.