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Example of One Methodology to Select From Among Climate Change Scenarios and Projections

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Determining Climate Change Scenarios And Projections

ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has been working together with a consortium of agencies and other experts for five years now to develop methods to select from among the wide portfolio of climate data available for use in decision-making. One method of approaching this is detailed in the chart provided here.

The approach provides one method of examining global climate models (GCMs) used by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This method selects five representative climate change scenarios: hotter and wetter, warmer and wetter, warmer and drier, hotter and drier, and central tendency.

While the approach detailed in the brief is plausible, USACE is developing new data and methods to move to a more objective technique for determining climate change scenarios and projections. This more objective technique would sample a much larger area of the uncertainty space covered by the GCMs in the CMIP experiments.

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revised October 6, 2015



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